- λ home
- 2.09
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.91
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.9%
Chievo vs Tritium prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Chievo v Tritium: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Chievo v Tritium are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo (home) | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 2.66 |
| Tritium (away) | 1.16 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 1.47 × 1.20 ≈ 2.66
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.20 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.91 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.09, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Chievo | 77.2% | 62.0% | 70.3% | 65.5% |
| X Draw | 14.8% | 24.0% | 19.8% | 22.2% |
| 2 Tritium | 8.0% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 12.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Chievo | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -16.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.49 | 4.50 | 22.2% | +0.1% | |
| 2 · Tritium | 12.3% | 8.14 | 9.00 | 11.1% | +10.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.7% | 1.14 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -9.7% | |
| X2 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +17.4% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -12.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Chievo | 84.2% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tritium | 15.8% | 6.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +0.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.8% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.1% | 7.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.529 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.005 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Chievo | Tritium |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWW | DLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 0.40 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Chievo at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Chievo 1st on 25, Tritium 18th on 6.
Form
Chievo, last six: L W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Nibbiano & Valtidone. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Tritium: D L D L L, so zero victories in five. Latest: 2–2 at home to Rovato Vertovese. Per match: 1.4 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Chievo 2.09 · Tritium 0.82 · total 2.91. High total: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Chievo 2–1 Tritium. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Chievo vs Tritium?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.90 by the bookmakers.
What are the Chievo v Tritium probabilities?
Chievo win 65%, draw 22%, Tritium win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Chievo vs Tritium?
Chievo 2–1 Tritium is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Chievo vs Tritium?
Chievo 2.09, Tritium 0.82 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Chievo vs Tritium?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.