- λ home
- 1.61
- λ away
- 1.64
- Σλ total
- 3.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Rovato Vertovese v Real Calepina: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Rovato Vertovese v Real Calepina are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rovato Vertovese (home) | 1.51 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Real Calepina (away) | 1.16 | 0.94 | 1.25 | 1.37 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 1.13 × 1.17 ≈ 2.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.36 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.80 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.79 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.61, λaway = 1.64
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rovato Vertovese | 51.5% | 41.0% | 36.8% | 39.3% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 17.0% | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| 2 Real Calepina | 25.9% | 42.0% | 37.9% | 40.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.052 → 5.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rovato Vertovese | 39.3% | 2.55 | 2.58 | 38.8% | +1.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.76 | 26.6% | -23.0% | |
| 2 · Real Calepina | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.51 | 39.8% | +1.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.7% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 60.7% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rovato Vertovese | 49.4% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Calepina | 50.6% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -1.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -23.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +4.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -15.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.85 | 35.1% | +5.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +12.0% | |
| BTTS no | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -22.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.8% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.4% | 3.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.644 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.120 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.162 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Real Calepina |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDLLD | LLDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 20 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Rovato Vertovese 14th on 10, Real Calepina 11th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Rovato Vertovese: D D D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Tritium. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Real Calepina, last six: L L D D W D – one win in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to Brusaporto. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rovato Vertovese 1.61 · Real Calepina 1.64 · total 3.25. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Rovato Vertovese 1–2 Real Calepina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rovato Vertovese v Real Calepina probabilities?
Rovato Vertovese win 39%, draw 20%, Real Calepina win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina?
Rovato Vertovese 1–2 Real Calepina is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina?
Rovato Vertovese 1.61, Real Calepina 1.64 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Rovato Vertovese vs Real Calepina?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.