- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sutton Utd 58% · draw 21% · Solihull Moors 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sutton Utd v Solihull Moors: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sutton Utd v Solihull Moors are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sutton Utd | – | 65.0% | 49.3% | 58.4% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| 2 Solihull Moors | – | 18.0% | 25.3% | 21.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.096 → 9.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sutton Utd | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -26.2% | |
| 2 · Solihull Moors | 21.1% | 4.74 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -24.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.4% | |
| X2 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -25.1% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sutton Utd | 73.5% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Solihull Moors | 26.5% | 3.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 4.85 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.1% | 5.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.794 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sutton Utd | Solihull Moors |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLW | WWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sutton Utd ahead at 58%, against 21% for Solihull Moors and 21% for the draw. Standings: Sutton Utd 11th on 24, Solihull Moors 22nd on 13.
Form
Sequence for Sutton Utd: L D W W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Guiseley AFC. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Solihull Moors, last six: W W L L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Kidderminster Harriers. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sutton Utd 1.95 · Solihull Moors 1.07 · total 3.03. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Sutton Utd 2–1 Solihull Moors. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sutton Utd v Solihull Moors probabilities?
Sutton Utd win 58%, draw 21%, Solihull Moors win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors?
Sutton Utd 2–1 Solihull Moors is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors?
Sutton Utd 1.95, Solihull Moors 1.07 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at VBS Community Stadium – National League.