- λ home
- 2.05
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 3.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Harrogate Town vs Altrincham prediction & xG model: Harrogate Town to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Harrogate Town 61% · draw 16% · Altrincham 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Harrogate Town v Altrincham: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Harrogate Town v Altrincham are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.28 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.05, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Harrogate Town | – | 68.0% | 52.2% | 61.4% |
| X Draw | – | 10.0% | 23.4% | 15.6% |
| 2 Altrincham | – | 22.0% | 24.4% | 23.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Harrogate Town pick | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +7.4% | |
| X · Draw | 15.6% | 6.39 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -39.0% | |
| 2 · Altrincham | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -13.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.7% | |
| X2 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -22.7% | |
| 12 | 84.4% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +5.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Harrogate Town | 72.7% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Altrincham | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 5.51 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -9.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -4.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -7.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.3% | 2.55 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -1.1% | |
| BTTS no | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -16.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.4% | 5.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.614 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.074 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.099 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Harrogate Town | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWWD | DLDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Harrogate Town 61% to win. Standings: Harrogate Town 2nd on 32, Altrincham 7th on 28.
Form
Harrogate Town, last six: L D L W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to AFC Fylde. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Altrincham: D L D W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Notts County. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Harrogate Town 2.05 · Altrincham 1.13 · total 3.18. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Harrogate Town to win, probability 61%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Harrogate Town 2–1 Altrincham. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?
The Model pick is Harrogate Town to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Harrogate Town v Altrincham probabilities?
Harrogate Town win 61%, draw 16%, Altrincham win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?
Harrogate Town 2–1 Altrincham is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?
Harrogate Town 2.05, Altrincham 1.13 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Exercise Stadium – National League.