- λ home
- 1.27
- λ away
- 1.37
- Σλ total
- 2.64
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Kidderminster Harriers vs FC Halifax Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kidderminster Harriers v FC Halifax Town: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kidderminster Harriers v FC Halifax Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 37 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers (home) | 1.66 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| FC Halifax Town (away) | 1.38 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 1.02 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.05 × 1.00 ≈ 1.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.77 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.53 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.64 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.27, λaway = 1.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kidderminster Harriers | 53.6% | 38.0% | 36.1% | 37.2% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 17.0% | 27.1% | 21.2% |
| 2 FC Halifax Town | 21.7% | 45.0% | 36.8% | 41.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kidderminster Harriers | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -5.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · FC Halifax Town | 41.6% | 2.41 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +3.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -12.3% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.8% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kidderminster Harriers | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Halifax Town | 52.8% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -4.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.1% | 3.55 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -8.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -3.0% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -12.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.581 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kidderminster Harriers | FC Halifax Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDLWD | LLWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 21 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Kidderminster Harriers 13th on 22, FC Halifax Town 10th on 25.
Form
Sequence for Kidderminster Harriers: W L D L W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Doncaster. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
FC Halifax Town have two wins from their last six (L L W L D W). Latest: 0–2 away at Cheltenham. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kidderminster Harriers 1.27 · FC Halifax Town 1.37 · total 2.64. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Kidderminster Harriers 1–2 FC Halifax Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 17 | +27 | 45 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 17 | +15 | 35 |
| 3 |  Southend | 17 | +12 | 32 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 17 | +7 | 32 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 17 | +15 | 29 |
| 6 |  Carlisle | 17 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Worthing | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Barrow | 16 | +10 | 28 |
| 9 |  Altrincham | 17 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 17 | +8 | 25 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  AFC Hornchurch | 17 | -7 | 24 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 17 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Aldershot Town | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Wealdstone | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Eastleigh | 17 | -7 | 19 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 17 | -10 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 17 | -9 | 16 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 17 | -19 | 16 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 16 | -11 | 11 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 16 | -28 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kidderminster Harriers vs FC Halifax Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kidderminster Harriers v FC Halifax Town probabilities?
Kidderminster Harriers win 37%, draw 21%, FC Halifax Town win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Kidderminster Harriers vs FC Halifax Town?
Kidderminster Harriers 1–2 FC Halifax Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kidderminster Harriers vs FC Halifax Town?
Kidderminster Harriers 1.27, FC Halifax Town 1.37 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Kidderminster Harriers vs FC Halifax Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Aggborough Stadium – National League.