- λ home
- 2.41
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 3.35
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.1%
Southend vs Aldershot Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Southend v Aldershot Town: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Southend v Aldershot Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 40 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend (home) | 1.66 | 1.36 | 1.02 | 2.32 |
| Aldershot Town (away) | 1.38 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 1.28 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.36 × 1.02 ≈ 2.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.60 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.22 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.35 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.41, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Southend | 60.1% | 70.0% | 66.2% | 68.4% |
| X Draw | 20.1% | 20.0% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| 2 Aldershot Town | 19.8% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 11.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Southend | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -5.6% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -6.5% | |
| 2 · Aldershot Town | 11.9% | 8.38 | 6.25 | 16.0% | -25.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -2.2% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | 3.16 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -13.1% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Southend | 85.1% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Aldershot Town | 14.9% | 6.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -5.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.9% | 6.71 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -3.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.4% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.2% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.5% | 6.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.619 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Southend | Aldershot Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDLWW | LLWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 100% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Southend at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Southend 3rd on 32, Aldershot Town 15th on 21.
Form
Southend, last six: L D D L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Wealdstone. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Aldershot Town: L L W L L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–7 away at Barnsley. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Aldershot Town 0–2 Southend. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Southend 2.41 · Aldershot Town 0.95 · total 3.35. High total: over 2.5 66%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Southend 2–1 Aldershot Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Apr 2026Aldershot Town0–2Southend
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 17 | +27 | 45 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 17 | +15 | 35 |
| 3 |  Southend | 17 | +12 | 32 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 17 | +7 | 32 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 17 | +15 | 29 |
| 6 |  Carlisle | 17 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Worthing | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Barrow | 16 | +10 | 28 |
| 9 |  Altrincham | 17 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 17 | +8 | 25 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  AFC Hornchurch | 17 | -7 | 24 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 17 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Aldershot Town | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Wealdstone | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Eastleigh | 17 | -7 | 19 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 17 | -10 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 17 | -9 | 16 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 17 | -19 | 16 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 16 | -11 | 11 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 16 | -28 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Southend vs Aldershot Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Southend v Aldershot Town probabilities?
Southend win 68%, draw 20%, Aldershot Town win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Southend vs Aldershot Town?
Southend 2–1 Aldershot Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Southend vs Aldershot Town?
Southend 2.41, Aldershot Town 0.95 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Southend vs Aldershot Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Roots Hall – National League.