- λ home
- 0.90
- λ away
- 2.03
- Σλ total
- 2.93
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.0%
Gateshead vs Barrow prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Gateshead 17% · draw 19% · Barrow 64%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Gateshead v Barrow: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Gateshead v Barrow are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.93 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.93 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.90, λaway = 2.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gateshead | – | 16.0% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| 2 Barrow | – | 66.0% | 61.6% | 64.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gateshead | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -13.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.19 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -16.5% | |
| 2 · Barrow | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -5.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -10.4% | |
| X2 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.9% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gateshead | 20.5% | 4.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Barrow | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.69 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -7.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.29 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -5.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -9.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +6.0% | |
| BTTS no | 41.1% | 2.43 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.8% | 6.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.787 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gateshead | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLDD | WDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Barrow favoured on the road at 64% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Gateshead 24th on 4, Barrow 9th on 25.
Form
Gateshead have one win from their last six (W L L L D D). Latest: 3–1 at home to Stoke City U21. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Barrow, last six: W D W W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Gillingham. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gateshead 0.90 · Barrow 2.03 · total 2.93. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.27. Most probable score: Gateshead 0–2 Barrow. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gateshead vs Barrow?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gateshead v Barrow probabilities?
Gateshead win 17%, draw 19%, Barrow win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Gateshead vs Barrow?
Gateshead 0–2 Barrow is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gateshead vs Barrow?
Gateshead 0.90, Barrow 2.03 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Gateshead vs Barrow?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Gateshead International Stadium – National League.