- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 2.13
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.9%
Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde prediction & xG model: AFC Fylde to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Eastleigh v AFC Fylde: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAFC Fylde to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Eastleigh v AFC Fylde are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh (home) | 1.66 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| AFC Fylde (away) | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.06 | 1.99 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.86 × 0.82 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.06 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.36 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 2.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 61.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Eastleigh | 21.6% | 17.0% | 26.7% | 21.1% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 10.0% | 22.7% | 15.3% |
| 2 AFC Fylde | 55.8% | 73.0% | 50.5% | 63.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.100 → 10.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Eastleigh | 21.1% | 4.74 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -28.3% | |
| X · Draw | 15.3% | 6.52 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -38.6% | |
| 2 · AFC Fylde pick | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +14.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.4% | 2.74 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -30.4% | |
| X2 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +4.9% | |
| 12 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Eastleigh | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AFC Fylde | 75.1% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.3% | 6.14 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -2.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -2.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -13.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -1.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.4% | |
| BTTS no | 34.3% | 2.92 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -10.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.636 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.144 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.180 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Eastleigh | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWWL | WWWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: AFC Fylde 64%, Eastleigh 21%. Standings: Eastleigh 18th on 19, AFC Fylde 4th on 32.
Form
Eastleigh, last six: L D L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Shrewsbury. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for AFC Fylde: W W W L W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 4–1 away at Harrogate Town. 2.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Eastleigh 1.09 · AFC Fylde 2.13 · total 3.22. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: AFC Fylde to win, probability 64%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Eastleigh 1–2 AFC Fylde. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 17 | +27 | 45 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 17 | +15 | 35 |
| 3 |  Southend | 17 | +12 | 32 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 17 | +7 | 32 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 17 | +15 | 29 |
| 6 |  Carlisle | 17 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Worthing | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Barrow | 16 | +10 | 28 |
| 9 |  Altrincham | 17 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 17 | +8 | 25 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  AFC Hornchurch | 17 | -7 | 24 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 17 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Aldershot Town | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Wealdstone | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Eastleigh | 17 | -7 | 19 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 17 | -10 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 17 | -9 | 16 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 17 | -19 | 16 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 16 | -11 | 11 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 16 | -28 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?
The Model pick is AFC Fylde to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Eastleigh v AFC Fylde probabilities?
Eastleigh win 21%, draw 15%, AFC Fylde win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?
Eastleigh 1–2 AFC Fylde is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?
Eastleigh 1.09, AFC Fylde 2.13 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Silverlake Stadium – National League.