- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 1.15
- Σλ total
- 3.12
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.0%
Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United prediction & xG model: Tochigi SC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tochigi SC v Fukushima United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTochigi SC to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tochigi SC v Fukushima United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC (home) | 1.52 | 0.71 | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| Fukushima United (away) | 1.23 | 1.31 | 0.74 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.71 × 1.27 ≈ 1.37
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.18 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.12 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 1.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tochigi SC | 40.2% | 62.0% | 47.7% | 56.0% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 21.0% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| 2 Fukushima United | 31.9% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 21.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tochigi SC pick | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.38 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -19.7% | |
| 2 · Fukushima United | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -30.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.9% | |
| X2 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -24.7% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tochigi SC | 72.5% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fukushima United | 27.5% | 3.64 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.3% | 5.18 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -14.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.21 | 45.2% | -10.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -9.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.3% | 1.61 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -7.2% | |
| BTTS no | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.34 | 42.7% | -11.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.8% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.2% | 4.95 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.87 − 1 = +0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.054 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tochigi SC | Fukushima United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWLLD | LWWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 83% |
| BTTS | 0% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tochigi SC ahead at 56%, against 21% for Fukushima United and 23% for the draw. Standings: Tochigi SC 14th on 21, Fukushima United 13th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Tochigi SC: W D W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Ehime FC. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Fukushima United: L W W L D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Matsumoto Yamaga. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tochigi SC 1.97 · Fukushima United 1.15 · total 3.12. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Tochigi SC to win, probability 56%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Tochigi SC 2–1 Fukushima United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United?
The Model pick is Tochigi SC to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.87 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tochigi SC v Fukushima United probabilities?
Tochigi SC win 56%, draw 23%, Fukushima United win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United?
Tochigi SC 2–1 Fukushima United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United?
Tochigi SC 1.97, Fukushima United 1.15 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Kanseki Stadium Tochigi – J3 League.