- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Renofa Yamaguchi v Kagoshima United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Renofa Yamaguchi v Kagoshima United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi (home) | 1.52 | 1.03 | 0.92 | 1.44 |
| Kagoshima United (away) | 1.23 | 1.23 | 0.70 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.03 × 0.92 ≈ 1.44
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.50 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Renofa Yamaguchi | 45.0% | 42.0% | 30.7% | 37.2% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 18.0% | 28.1% | 22.2% |
| 2 Kagoshima United | 27.2% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 40.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Renofa Yamaguchi | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.91 | 34.4% | +8.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.18 | 31.4% | -29.3% | |
| 2 · Kagoshima United | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -12.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -19.0% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Renofa Yamaguchi | 47.9% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kagoshima United | 52.1% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.75 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -12.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -7.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -8.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -9.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -1.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -17.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.583 × 1.69 − 1 = -0.015 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Renofa Yamaguchi | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWWW | DLWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 22 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Renofa Yamaguchi 5th on 30, Kagoshima United 3rd on 31.
Form
Renofa Yamaguchi have four wins from their last six (L W L W W W). Latest: 0–2 at home to Kitakyushu. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Kagoshima United, last six: D L W W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Roasso Kumamoto. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 3: Renofa Yamaguchi 1, Kagoshima United 2, drawn 0, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Kagoshima United 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Renofa Yamaguchi 1.29 · Kagoshima United 1.36 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Renofa Yamaguchi 1–2 Kagoshima United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Aug 2026Kagoshima United2–1Renofa Yamaguchi
- 18 Apr 2026Renofa Yamaguchi2–1Kagoshima United
- 22 Feb 2026Kagoshima United1–0Renofa Yamaguchi
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the Renofa Yamaguchi v Kagoshima United probabilities?
Renofa Yamaguchi win 37%, draw 22%, Kagoshima United win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?
Renofa Yamaguchi 1–2 Kagoshima United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?
Renofa Yamaguchi 1.29, Kagoshima United 1.36 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Ishin Me-Life Stadium – J3 League.