- λ home
- 1.04
- λ away
- 1.98
- Σλ total
- 3.02
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Kochi United vs Ehime FC prediction & xG model: Ehime FC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Kochi United v Ehime FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipEhime FC to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Kochi United v Ehime FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kochi United (home) | 1.52 | 0.65 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| Ehime FC (away) | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.46 | 2.18 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.65 × 1.18 ≈ 1.16
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.33 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.14 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.92 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.02 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.04, λaway = 1.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 59.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kochi United | 19.2% | 18.0% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| X Draw | 21.0% | 10.0% | 25.3% | 16.4% |
| 2 Ehime FC | 59.9% | 72.0% | 47.4% | 61.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kochi United | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.26 | 30.7% | -28.6% | |
| X · Draw | 16.4% | 6.09 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -42.2% | |
| 2 · Ehime FC pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +15.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -34.8% | |
| X2 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -4.0% | |
| 12 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +0.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kochi United | 26.2% | 3.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ehime FC | 73.8% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.83 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -14.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -8.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -10.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -8.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.4% | 5.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.4% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.159 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.181 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kochi United | Ehime FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLL | LLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Ehime FC 62%, Kochi United 22%. Standings: Kochi United 20th on 9, Ehime FC 7th on 29.
Form
Kochi United have zero wins from their last six (L D L L L L). Latest: 1–3 at home to Sagamihara. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Sequence for Ehime FC: L L W L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Tochigi SC. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Kochi United 0, Ehime FC 2, drawn 0, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Kochi United 0–1 Ehime FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kochi United 1.04 · Ehime FC 1.98 · total 3.02. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ehime FC to win, probability 62%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Kochi United 1–2 Ehime FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Kochi United0–1Ehime FC
- 22 Mar 2026Ehime FC1–0Kochi United
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kochi United vs Ehime FC?
The Model pick is Ehime FC to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kochi United v Ehime FC probabilities?
Kochi United win 22%, draw 16%, Ehime FC win 62%.
What is the most probable score for Kochi United vs Ehime FC?
Kochi United 1–2 Ehime FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kochi United vs Ehime FC?
Kochi United 1.04, Ehime FC 1.98 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Kochi United vs Ehime FC?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Kochi Haruno Athletic Stadium – J3 League.