- λ home
- 2.06
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 3.13
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction & xG model: Nara Club to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Nara Club v Thespakusatsu Gunma: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNara Club to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Nara Club v Thespakusatsu Gunma are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Club (home) | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 2.75 |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma (away) | 1.23 | 0.76 | 0.90 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.33 × 1.36 ≈ 2.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.60 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.23 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.13 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.06, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nara Club | 76.5% | 64.0% | 53.0% | 59.4% |
| X Draw | 14.6% | 22.0% | 23.6% | 22.7% |
| 2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8.8% | 14.0% | 23.4% | 18.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nara Club pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -0.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -14.4% | |
| 2 · Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18.0% | 5.57 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -31.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -4.8% | |
| X2 | 40.6% | 2.46 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -22.4% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -9.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nara Club | 76.8% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Thespakusatsu Gunma | 23.2% | 4.31 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -9.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 5.54 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -9.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -7.3% | |
| BTTS no | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -12.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.68 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nara Club | Thespakusatsu Gunma |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWWW | LWLDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Nara Club 59%, draw 23%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 18%. Standings: Nara Club 2nd on 32, Thespakusatsu Gunma 19th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Nara Club: W L L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Kamatamare Sanuki. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Thespakusatsu Gunma: L W L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–4 away at Kanazawa. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nara Club 2.06 · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.07 · total 3.13. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Nara Club to win, probability 59%, odds 1.68 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Nara Club 2–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
The Model pick is Nara Club to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.68 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nara Club v Thespakusatsu Gunma probabilities?
Nara Club win 59%, draw 23%, Thespakusatsu Gunma win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Nara Club 2–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Nara Club 2.06, Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.07 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Konoike Athletic Stadium – J3 League.