- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 1.88
- Σλ total
- 2.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara prediction & xG model: Sagamihara to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Gainare Tottori v Sagamihara: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSagamihara to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Gainare Tottori v Sagamihara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori (home) | 1.52 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| Sagamihara (away) | 1.23 | 1.06 | 1.29 | 1.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.74 × 0.76 ≈ 0.85
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.54 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.93 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 1.88
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 57.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gainare Tottori | 18.4% | 13.0% | 26.2% | 18.6% |
| X Draw | 25.3% | 24.0% | 26.4% | 25.0% |
| 2 Sagamihara | 56.2% | 63.0% | 47.4% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gainare Tottori | 18.6% | 5.39 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -36.9% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -15.5% | |
| 2 · Sagamihara pick | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +6.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.5% | 2.30 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -26.0% | |
| X2 | 81.4% | 1.23 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -1.4% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gainare Tottori | 24.7% | 4.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sagamihara | 75.3% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.86 | 25.9% | -13.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -11.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.565 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.070 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gainare Tottori | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDLL | WDLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sagamihara narrowly ahead at 56%; Gainare Tottori 19%. Standings: Gainare Tottori 17th on 15, Sagamihara 4th on 31.
Form
Gainare Tottori have zero wins from their last six (L D L D L L). Latest: 2–5 away at FC Ryukyu. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Sagamihara: W D L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Kochi United. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gainare Tottori 1.01 · Sagamihara 1.88 · total 2.89. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Sagamihara to win, probability 56%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: Gainare Tottori 0–1 Sagamihara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
The Model pick is Sagamihara to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gainare Tottori v Sagamihara probabilities?
Gainare Tottori win 19%, draw 25%, Sagamihara win 56%.
What is the most probable score for Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
Gainare Tottori 0–1 Sagamihara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
Gainare Tottori 1.01, Sagamihara 1.88 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Axis Bird Stadium – J3 League.