- λ home
- 0.84
- λ away
- 1.89
- Σλ total
- 2.73
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.3%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga prediction & xG model: Matsumoto Yamaga to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Kamatamare Sanuki v Matsumoto Yamaga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipMatsumoto Yamaga to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kamatamare Sanuki v Matsumoto Yamaga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamatamare Sanuki (home) | 1.52 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 1.02 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga (away) | 1.23 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.83 × 0.81 ≈ 1.02
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.02 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.61 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.73 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.84, λaway = 1.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kamatamare Sanuki | 34.4% | 11.0% | 23.4% | 16.2% |
| X Draw | 32.3% | 19.0% | 25.1% | 21.6% |
| 2 Matsumoto Yamaga | 33.3% | 70.0% | 51.5% | 62.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kamatamare Sanuki | 16.2% | 6.16 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -38.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.6% | 4.64 | 3.55 | 28.2% | -23.5% | |
| 2 · Matsumoto Yamaga pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.8% | 2.65 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -30.5% | |
| X2 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -2.8% | |
| 12 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kamatamare Sanuki | 20.7% | 4.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Matsumoto Yamaga | 79.3% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.86 | 25.9% | -8.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -5.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -14.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -5.9% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -12.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.5% | 6.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.076 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.105 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kamatamare Sanuki | Matsumoto Yamaga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLD | WLWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Matsumoto Yamaga 62%, Kamatamare Sanuki 16%. Standings: Kamatamare Sanuki 18th on 14, Matsumoto Yamaga 15th on 18.
Form
Kamatamare Sanuki have one win from their last six (L L W L L D). Latest: 0–2 at home to Nara Club. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Matsumoto Yamaga: W L W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Fukushima United. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kamatamare Sanuki 0.84 · Matsumoto Yamaga 1.89 · total 2.73. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Matsumoto Yamaga to win, probability 62%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Matsumoto Yamaga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
The Model pick is Matsumoto Yamaga to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kamatamare Sanuki v Matsumoto Yamaga probabilities?
Kamatamare Sanuki win 16%, draw 22%, Matsumoto Yamaga win 62%.
What is the most probable score for Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Matsumoto Yamaga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Kamatamare Sanuki 0.84, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.89 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Pikara – J3 League.