- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 1.49
- Σλ total
- 3.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC OSS v Helmond Sport: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC OSS v Helmond Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC OSS (home) | 1.86 | 0.90 | 1.31 | 2.18 |
| Helmond Sport (away) | 1.57 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 1.42 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 0.90 × 1.31 ≈ 2.18
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.59 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 1.49
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC OSS | 54.3% | 44.0% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| X Draw | 21.3% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 Helmond Sport | 24.4% | 38.0% | 30.6% | 34.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC OSS | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · Helmond Sport | 34.9% | 2.87 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +4.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -12.1% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | 1.76 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -7.7% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC OSS | 55.2% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Helmond Sport | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.5% | 5.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.9% | 1.61 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 38.1% | 2.63 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.3% | 3.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.619 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC OSS | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLW | DLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC OSS ahead at 43%, against 35% for Helmond Sport and 22% for the draw. Standings: FC OSS 10th on 0, Helmond Sport 7th on 0.
Form
FC OSS have three wins from their last six (W L W L L W). Latest: 4–1 at home to MVV. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Helmond Sport, last six: D L L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Heracles. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSS. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC OSS 1.68 · Helmond Sport 1.49 · total 3.17. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: FC OSS 2–1 Helmond Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Mar 2026Helmond Sport1–1FC OSS
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC OSS v Helmond Sport probabilities?
FC OSS win 43%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport win 35%.
What is the most probable score for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 2–1 Helmond Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 1.68, Helmond Sport 1.49 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Frans Heesen Stadion – Eerste Divisie.