- λ home
- 2.31
- λ away
- 1.02
- Σλ total
- 3.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC (home) | 1.86 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 2.81 |
| FC Eindhoven (away) | 1.57 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.26 × 1.20 ≈ 2.81
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.79 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.33 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.31, λaway = 1.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almere City FC | 74.8% | 64.0% | 67.0% | 65.3% |
| X Draw | 14.9% | 21.0% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
| 2 FC Eindhoven | 10.2% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 14.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almere City FC | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.2% | 4.96 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -3.3% | |
| 2 · FC Eindhoven | 14.6% | 6.86 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.90 | 34.5% | +0.7% | |
| 12 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -8.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almere City FC | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Eindhoven | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.45 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -6.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.9% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.2% | 6.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.640 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almere City FC | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWLW | DLWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Almere City FC at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Almere City FC 9th on 0, FC Eindhoven 5th on 0.
Form
Almere City FC, last six: W L W W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to FC Volendam. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for FC Eindhoven: D L W W D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to De Graafschap. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): FC Eindhoven 3–2 Almere City FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almere City FC 2.31 · FC Eindhoven 1.02 · total 3.33. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Almere City FC 2–1 FC Eindhoven. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Feb 2026FC Eindhoven3–2Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven probabilities?
Almere City FC win 65%, draw 20%, FC Eindhoven win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC 2–1 FC Eindhoven is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC 2.31, FC Eindhoven 1.02 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Yanmar Stadion – Eerste Divisie.