- λ home
- 2.37
- λ away
- 1.52
- Σλ total
- 3.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.7%
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch prediction & xG model: Jong AZ to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Jong AZ v Den Bosch: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipJong AZ to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Jong AZ v Den Bosch are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ (home) | 1.86 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 2.16 |
| Den Bosch (away) | 1.57 | 0.91 | 1.25 | 1.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.16 × 1.00 ≈ 2.16
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.93 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.89 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.37, λaway = 1.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jong AZ | 46.7% | 63.0% | 46.8% | 56.2% |
| X Draw | 21.2% | 18.0% | 22.8% | 20.0% |
| 2 Den Bosch | 32.1% | 19.0% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.096 → 9.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Jong AZ pick | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 20.0% | 5.00 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -19.9% | |
| 2 · Den Bosch | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -28.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +2.9% | |
| X2 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -21.1% | |
| 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Jong AZ | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Den Bosch | 29.7% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.0% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.0% | 10.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -13.7% | |
| BTTS no | 31.0% | 3.23 | 3.80 | 26.3% | +17.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.1% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.2% | 4.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.562 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.101 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Jong AZ | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWWL | DLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Jong AZ ahead at 56%, against 24% for Den Bosch and 20% for the draw. Standings: Jong AZ 19th on 0, Den Bosch 3rd on 0.
Form
Jong AZ, last six: W D L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to FC Volendam. 2.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Den Bosch, last six: D L W L L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Dordrecht. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Jong AZ 2–2 Den Bosch. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Jong AZ 2.37 · Den Bosch 1.52 · total 3.89. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Jong AZ to win, probability 56%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Jong AZ 2–1 Den Bosch. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 Feb 2026Jong AZ2–2Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
The Model pick is Jong AZ to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Jong AZ v Den Bosch probabilities?
Jong AZ win 56%, draw 20%, Den Bosch win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 2–1 Den Bosch is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 2.37, Den Bosch 1.52 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at AFAS Trainingscomplex – Eerste Divisie.