- λ home
- 1.89
- λ away
- 1.72
- Σλ total
- 3.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 70%
- Modal score
- 1–1 8.8%
FC Volendam vs Vitesse prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Volendam v Vitesse: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Volendam v Vitesse are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam (home) | 1.86 | 1.23 | 0.83 | 1.89 |
| Vitesse (away) | 1.57 | 0.90 | 1.07 | 1.50 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.23 × 0.83 ≈ 1.89
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.39 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.61 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.89, λaway = 1.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 8.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Volendam | 46.4% | 47.0% | 39.5% | 43.8% |
| X Draw | 23.2% | 16.0% | 24.2% | 19.4% |
| 2 Vitesse | 30.5% | 37.0% | 36.3% | 36.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.101 → 10.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Volendam | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +0.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.14 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -27.1% | |
| 2 · Vitesse | 36.7% | 2.72 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.9% | |
| X2 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -13.0% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Volendam | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vitesse | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.5% | 8.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 29.7% | 3.37 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -18.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.703 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Volendam | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWLW | DLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: FC Volendam 44%, draw 19%, Vitesse 37%. Standings: FC Volendam 11th on 0, Vitesse 15th on 0.
Form
FC Volendam have three wins from their last six (L W L W L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Almere City FC. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Vitesse: D L W L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to NAC Breda. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Volendam 1.89 · Vitesse 1.72 · total 3.61. High total: over 2.5 70%, BTTS 70%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 70%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.42. Most probable score: FC Volendam 2–1 Vitesse. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Volendam v Vitesse probabilities?
FC Volendam win 44%, draw 19%, Vitesse win 37%.
What is the most probable score for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
FC Volendam 2–1 Vitesse is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
FC Volendam 1.89, Vitesse 1.72 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 70%.
What time is FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Kras Stadion – Eerste Divisie.