- λ home
- 2.73
- λ away
- 1.21
- Σλ total
- 3.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.8%
Heracles vs Waalwijk prediction & xG model: Heracles to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Heracles v Waalwijk: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipHeracles to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Heracles v Waalwijk are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles (home) | 1.86 | 1.56 | 0.85 | 2.46 |
| Waalwijk (away) | 1.57 | 1.10 | 0.72 | 1.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.56 × 0.85 ≈ 2.46
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.70 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.94 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.73, λaway = 1.21
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Heracles | 63.5% | 74.0% | 60.3% | 68.2% |
| X Draw | 18.9% | 16.0% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| 2 Waalwijk | 17.6% | 10.0% | 18.4% | 13.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Heracles pick | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +4.4% | |
| X · Draw | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -21.1% | |
| 2 · Waalwijk | 13.5% | 7.38 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -32.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.5% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +1.2% | |
| X2 | 31.8% | 3.15 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -24.4% | |
| 12 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Heracles | 83.4% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Waalwijk | 16.6% | 6.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.4% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.6% | 10.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.5% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.0% | 3.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.5% | 6.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.682 × 1.53 − 1 = +0.044 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.083 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Heracles | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWWW | DLWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Heracles 68% to win. Standings: Heracles 16th on 0, Waalwijk 12th on 0.
Form
Heracles have four wins from their last six (D W L W W W). Latest: 2–2 away at Helmond Sport. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Waalwijk have three wins from their last six (D L W W W D). Latest: 1–1 at home to Emmen. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Heracles 2.73 · Waalwijk 1.21 · total 3.94. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Heracles to win, probability 68%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Heracles 2–1 Waalwijk. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
The Model pick is Heracles to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Heracles v Waalwijk probabilities?
Heracles win 68%, draw 18%, Waalwijk win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 2–1 Waalwijk is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 2.73, Waalwijk 1.21 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Polman Stadion – Eerste Divisie.