- λ home
- 2.73
- λ away
- 1.16
- Σλ total
- 3.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.8%
NAC Breda vs MVV prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
NAC Breda v MVV: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for NAC Breda v MVV are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda (home) | 1.86 | 1.08 | 1.14 | 2.28 |
| MVV (away) | 1.57 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.12 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.08 × 1.14 ≈ 2.28
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.40 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.89 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.73, λaway = 1.16
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 70.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 NAC Breda | 62.6% | 69.0% | 68.4% | 68.7% |
| X Draw | 20.0% | 20.0% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| 2 MVV | 17.3% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 11.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · NAC Breda | 68.7% | 1.45 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.17 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -3.2% | |
| 2 · MVV | 11.9% | 8.39 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -16.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -4.9% | |
| X2 | 31.3% | 3.20 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -6.2% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -7.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB NAC Breda | 85.2% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB MVV | 14.8% | 6.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.0% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.0% | 10.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +3.1% | |
| BTTS no | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -22.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.0% | 3.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.657 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.031 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.055 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | NAC Breda | MVV |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLLD | LWLLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
NAC Breda at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: NAC Breda 13th on 0, MVV 8th on 0.
Form
NAC Breda, last six: D W W L L D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Vitesse. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for MVV: L W L L D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–4 away at FC OSS. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG NAC Breda 2.73 · MVV 1.16 · total 3.89. High total: over 2.5 75%, BTTS 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: NAC Breda 2–1 MVV. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for NAC Breda vs MVV?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the NAC Breda v MVV probabilities?
NAC Breda win 69%, draw 19%, MVV win 12%.
What is the most probable score for NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda 2–1 MVV is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda 2.73, MVV 1.16 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is NAC Breda vs MVV?
Friday 9 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Rat Verlegh Stadion – Eerste Divisie.