- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 0.47
- Σλ total
- 2.20
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.2%
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas prediction & xG model: Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipGimnasia Chivilcoy to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy (home) | 1.20 | 0.97 | 1.59 | 1.84 |
| Defensores de Vilelas (away) | 0.71 | 1.34 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.97 × 1.59 ≈ 1.84
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.59 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.20 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.20 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 0.47
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 62.4% | 68.0% | 67.5% | 67.8% |
| X Draw | 23.2% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 23.3% |
| 2 Defensores de Vilelas | 14.4% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 8.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gimnasia Chivilcoy pick | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -8.5% | |
| X · Draw | 23.3% | 4.28 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +1.1% | |
| 2 · Defensores de Vilelas | 8.8% | 11.30 | 8.00 | 12.5% | -29.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 91.2% | 1.10 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -2.5% | |
| X2 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -3.4% | |
| 12 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 88.5% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Defensores de Vilelas | 11.5% | 8.66 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.1% | 5.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -1.8% | |
| BTTS no | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.4% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.4% | 10.64 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.678 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | Defensores de Vilelas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLDWW | DDWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 6th on 27, Defensores de Vilelas 24th on 19.
Form
Sequence for Gimnasia Chivilcoy: D L L D W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Defensores de Vilelas. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Defensores de Vilelas, last six: D D W L D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1.73 · Defensores de Vilelas 0.47 · total 2.20. Low total: under 2.5 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win, probability 68%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1–0 Defensores de Vilelas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Oct 2026Defensores de Vilelas1–1Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas?
The Model pick is Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas probabilities?
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win 68%, draw 23%, Defensores de Vilelas win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas?
Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1–0 Defensores de Vilelas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas?
Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1.73, Defensores de Vilelas 0.47 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Jose Maria Paz – Torneo Federal A.