- λ home
- 1.59
- λ away
- 0.56
- Σλ total
- 2.15
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 18.6%
Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano prediction & xG model: Sarmiento de La Banda to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano: how the Arena called it
- Full time
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- Arena tipSarmiento de La Banda to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de La Banda (home) | 1.20 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.26 |
| Sportivo Belgrano (away) | 0.71 | 0.78 | 1.12 | 0.62 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.02 × 1.02 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.88 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.98 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.15 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.59, λaway = 0.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 18.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sarmiento de La Banda | 50.5% | 73.0% | 47.9% | 62.4% |
| X Draw | 31.5% | 21.0% | 30.5% | 25.0% |
| 2 Sportivo Belgrano | 18.0% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 12.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sarmiento de La Banda pick | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +15.5% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -27.5% | |
| 2 · Sportivo Belgrano | 12.6% | 7.97 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -48.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.4% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +2.3% | |
| X2 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -32.4% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sarmiento de La Banda | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sportivo Belgrano | 16.7% | 5.98 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -3.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -10.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.4% | 5.16 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -16.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +5.9% | |
| BTTS no | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -17.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.7% | 8.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.624 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.155 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.183 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sarmiento de La Banda | Sportivo Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLLW | DLLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Sarmiento de La Banda 62% to win. Standings: Sarmiento de La Banda 13th on 25, Sportivo Belgrano 3rd on 30.
Form
Sarmiento de La Banda, last six: D L L L L W – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Sportivo Belgrano. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sportivo Belgrano have one win from their last six (D L L W L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Sarmiento de La Banda. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sarmiento de La Banda 1, Sportivo Belgrano 0, drawn 1, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Sportivo Belgrano 1–1 Sarmiento de La Banda. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sarmiento de La Banda 1.59 · Sportivo Belgrano 0.56 · total 2.15. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Sarmiento de La Banda to win, probability 62%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Sportivo Belgrano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Oct 2026Sportivo Belgrano1–1Sarmiento de La Banda
- 23 Aug 2026Sarmiento de La Banda3–0Sportivo Belgrano
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano?
The Model pick is Sarmiento de La Banda to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano probabilities?
Sarmiento de La Banda win 62%, draw 25%, Sportivo Belgrano win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Sportivo Belgrano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Sarmiento de La Banda 1.59, Sportivo Belgrano 0.56 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadio Ciudad de La Banda – Torneo Federal A.