- λ home
- 0.88
- λ away
- 0.80
- Σλ total
- 1.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 24%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 0–0 18.6%
Huracan Las Heras vs Juventud Antoniana prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huracan Las Heras (home) | 1.20 | 0.75 | 0.96 | 0.87 |
| Juventud Antoniana (away) | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.63 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.75 × 0.96 ≈ 0.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.49 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.68 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.88, λaway = 0.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 34.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 18.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Huracan Las Heras | 37.7% | 40.0% | 38.5% | 39.4% |
| X Draw | 38.3% | 20.0% | 33.8% | 25.8% |
| 2 Juventud Antoniana | 24.0% | 40.0% | 27.7% | 34.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Huracan Las Heras | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.8% | 3.88 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -32.4% | |
| 2 · Juventud Antoniana | 34.8% | 2.87 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +11.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -15.3% | |
| X2 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -4.8% | |
| 12 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Huracan Las Heras | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventud Antoniana | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 23.8% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 9.0% | 11.08 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 91.0% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.4% | 2.07 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +4.1% | |
| BTTS no pick | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.1% | 4.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.5% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.516 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.164 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Juventud Antoniana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLLW | WLLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Huracan Las Heras 39%, draw 26%, Juventud Antoniana 35%. Standings: Huracan Las Heras 19th on 23, Juventud Antoniana 11th on 25.
Form
Sequence for Huracan Las Heras: L W D L L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Juventud Antoniana. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Juventud Antoniana: W L L L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Huracan Las Heras. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Previous 2: Huracan Las Heras 1, Juventud Antoniana 1, drawn 0, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Juventud Antoniana 3–0 Huracan Las Heras. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Huracan Las Heras 0.88 · Juventud Antoniana 0.80 · total 1.68. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 76%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.94. Most probable score: Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 10 Oct 2026Juventud Antoniana3–0Huracan Las Heras
- 16 Aug 2026Huracan Las Heras1–0Juventud Antoniana
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Huracan Las Heras vs Juventud Antoniana?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana probabilities?
Huracan Las Heras win 39%, draw 26%, Juventud Antoniana win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Huracan Las Heras vs Juventud Antoniana?
Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Huracan Las Heras vs Juventud Antoniana?
Huracan Las Heras 0.88, Juventud Antoniana 0.80 – over 2.5 at 24%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Huracan Las Heras vs Juventud Antoniana?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Estadio General San Martin – Torneo Federal A.