- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 0.62
- Σλ total
- 2.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 37%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–0 18.1%
Douglas Haig vs El Linqueño prediction & xG model: Douglas Haig to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Douglas Haig v El Linqueño: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDouglas Haig to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Douglas Haig v El Linqueño are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Haig (home) | 1.20 | 1.26 | 0.81 | 1.23 |
| El Linqueño (away) | 0.71 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.26 × 0.81 ≈ 1.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.70 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.91 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.25 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 0.62
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 18.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Douglas Haig | 54.1% | 64.0% | 54.6% | 60.1% |
| X Draw | 32.2% | 18.0% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| 2 El Linqueño | 13.7% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Douglas Haig pick | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -27.7% | |
| 2 · El Linqueño | 18.0% | 5.55 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -9.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -9.0% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | 2.50 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.1% | |
| 12 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Douglas Haig | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB El Linqueño | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -3.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -11.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.4% | 5.45 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -17.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.6% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +11.9% | |
| BTTS no | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -17.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.7% | 7.31 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.601 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Douglas Haig | El Linqueño |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWLWW | DWWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Douglas Haig at 60%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Douglas Haig 2nd on 31, El Linqueño 26th on 19.
Form
Sequence for Douglas Haig: D D W L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at El Linqueño. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
El Linqueño, last six: D W W L D D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Douglas Haig. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Douglas Haig 0, El Linqueño 1, drawn 1, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): El Linqueño 0–0 Douglas Haig. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Douglas Haig 1.47 · El Linqueño 0.62 · total 2.10. Low total: under 2.5 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Douglas Haig to win, probability 60%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Douglas Haig 1–0 El Linqueño. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Oct 2026El Linqueño0–0Douglas Haig
- 14 Jun 2026El Linqueño2–0Douglas Haig
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Douglas Haig vs El Linqueño?
The Model pick is Douglas Haig to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Douglas Haig v El Linqueño probabilities?
Douglas Haig win 60%, draw 22%, El Linqueño win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Douglas Haig vs El Linqueño?
Douglas Haig 1–0 El Linqueño is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Douglas Haig vs El Linqueño?
Douglas Haig 1.47, El Linqueño 0.62 – over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Douglas Haig vs El Linqueño?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Miguel Morales – Torneo Federal A.