- λ home
- 1.60
- λ away
- 0.34
- Σλ total
- 1.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 43%
- Modal score
- 1–0 23.0%
Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Villa Mitre v Costa Brava: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Villa Mitre v Costa Brava are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Mitre (home) | 1.20 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| Costa Brava (away) | 0.71 | 1.01 | 0.72 | 0.52 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.09 × 0.96 ≈ 1.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.77 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.53 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.60, λaway = 0.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 7.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 23.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villa Mitre | 53.1% | 73.0% | 63.9% | 69.2% |
| X Draw | 31.8% | 22.0% | 25.6% | 23.5% |
| 2 Costa Brava | 15.1% | 5.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villa Mitre | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -3.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -17.8% | |
| 2 · Costa Brava | 7.3% | 13.66 | 8.50 | 11.8% | -37.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 92.7% | 1.08 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -3.6% | |
| X2 | 30.8% | 3.24 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -19.9% | |
| 12 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villa Mitre | 90.4% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Costa Brava | 9.6% | 10.45 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +1.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -16.8% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +1.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.5% | 5.72 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -24.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.2% | 2.32 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +13.1% | |
| BTTS no | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -18.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 7.2% | 13.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.646 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.014 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.024 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villa Mitre | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWDD | DWWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Villa Mitre at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Villa Mitre 16th on 23, Costa Brava 27th on 18.
Form
Villa Mitre, last six: D D L W D D – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Costa Brava. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Costa Brava: D W W D L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Villa Mitre. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Costa Brava 1–1 Villa Mitre. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villa Mitre 1.60 · Costa Brava 0.34 · total 1.94. Low total: under 2.5 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Villa Mitre 1–0 Costa Brava. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Oct 2026Costa Brava1–1Villa Mitre
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villa Mitre v Costa Brava probabilities?
Villa Mitre win 69%, draw 23%, Costa Brava win 7%.
What is the most probable score for Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava?
Villa Mitre 1–0 Costa Brava is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava?
Villa Mitre 1.60, Costa Brava 0.34 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 43%.
What time is Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Estadio El Fortin – Torneo Federal A.