- λ home
- 1.15
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Barau FC vs Shooting Stars prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
How the numbers for Barau FC v Shooting Stars are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barau FC (home) | 1.62 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 1.68 |
| Shooting Stars (away) | 0.74 | 1.13 | 0.65 | 0.55 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 0.91 × 1.13 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.22 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.15, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Barau FC | 63.9% | 41.0% | – | 41.0% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 11.0% | – | 11.0% |
| 2 Shooting Stars | 11.4% | 48.0% | – | 48.0% |
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Barau FC | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| X · Draw | 11.0% | 9.09 | – | – | – | |
| 2 · Shooting Stars | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 59.0% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Barau FC | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Shooting Stars | 53.9% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 76.8% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.8% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Barau FC | Shooting Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDDLD | WDWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-5-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 41%. Standings: Barau FC 8th on 52, Shooting Stars 3rd on 60.
Form
Sequence for Barau FC: D D D D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Niger Tornadoes. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Shooting Stars have two wins from their last six (W D W L D D). Latest: 4–1 at home to Abia Warriors. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Barau FC 1.15 · Shooting Stars 1.30 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 77%. Most probable score: Barau FC 0–1 Shooting Stars. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
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Ranchers Bees1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Barau FC vs Shooting Stars?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 77.
What are the Barau FC v Shooting Stars probabilities?
Barau FC win 41%, draw 11%, Shooting Stars win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Barau FC vs Shooting Stars?
Barau FC 0–1 Shooting Stars is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Barau FC vs Shooting Stars?
Barau FC 1.15, Shooting Stars 1.30 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Barau FC vs Shooting Stars?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – NPFL.