- λ home
- 1.82
- λ away
- 0.66
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.3%
Abia Warriors vs Doma United prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Abia Warriors v Doma United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Abia Warriors v Doma United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.52 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.82, λaway = 0.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Abia Warriors | – | 70.0% | 59.1% | 65.4% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 26.4% | 21.5% |
| 2 Doma United | – | 12.0% | 14.5% | 13.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Abia Warriors | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -0.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.5% | 4.64 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Doma United | 13.0% | 7.67 | 6.20 | 16.1% | -19.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -25.3% | |
| 12 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Abia Warriors | 83.4% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Doma United | 16.6% | 6.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -13.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -7.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -9.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -12.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | 2.09 | 47.8% | +6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -21.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.9% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.6% | 7.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.755 × 1.21 − 1 = -0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Abia Warriors | Doma United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDLW | DDLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Abia Warriors 65% to win.
Form
Abia Warriors have one win from their last six (L L D D L W). Latest: 1–4 away at Shooting Stars. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Doma United: D D L W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Ikorodu City. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Abia Warriors 1.82 · Doma United 0.66 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.21 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Abia Warriors 1–0 Doma United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
League page →
Ranchers Bees1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Abia Warriors vs Doma United?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.21 by the bookmakers.
What are the Abia Warriors v Doma United probabilities?
Abia Warriors win 65%, draw 22%, Doma United win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Abia Warriors vs Doma United?
Abia Warriors 1–0 Doma United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Abia Warriors vs Doma United?
Abia Warriors 1.82, Doma United 0.66 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Abia Warriors vs Doma United?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Umuahia Township Stadium – NPFL.