- λ home
- 0.73
- λ away
- 0.27
- Σλ total
- 1.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 8%
- P(BTTS)
- 29%
- Modal score
- 0–0 36.8%
Bendel Insurance vs Kun Khalifat FC prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
How the numbers for Bendel Insurance v Kun Khalifat FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bendel Insurance (home) | 1.62 | 1.34 | 1.15 | 2.50 |
| Kun Khalifat FC (away) | 0.74 | 0.88 | 1.09 | 0.70 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.34 × 1.15 ≈ 2.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.20 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.73, λaway = 0.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 44.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 36.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bendel Insurance | 75.8% | 60.0% | – | 60.0% |
| X Draw | 15.9% | 11.0% | – | 11.0% |
| 2 Kun Khalifat FC | 8.3% | 29.0% | – | 29.0% |
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bendel Insurance | 60.0% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| X · Draw | 11.0% | 9.09 | – | – | – | |
| 2 · Kun Khalifat FC | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 71.0% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bendel Insurance | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kun Khalifat FC | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 26.4% | 3.78 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 8.0% | 12.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 92.0% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 1.9% | 52.66 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 98.1% | 1.02 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.0% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 66.9% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.2% | 12.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bendel Insurance | Kun Khalifat FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWLD | DDDLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bendel Insurance at 60%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Bendel Insurance 7th on 53, Kun Khalifat FC 14th on 49.
Form
Bendel Insurance have two wins from their last six (L W D W L D). Latest: 0–1 away at Nasarawa United. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Kun Khalifat FC have one win from their last six (D D D L D W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Barau FC. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bendel Insurance 0.73 · Kun Khalifat FC 0.27 · total 1.00. Low total: under 2.5 92%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 98%. Most probable score: Bendel Insurance 1–0 Kun Khalifat FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
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Sporting Lagos3Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bendel Insurance vs Kun Khalifat FC?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 98.
What are the Bendel Insurance v Kun Khalifat FC probabilities?
Bendel Insurance win 60%, draw 11%, Kun Khalifat FC win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Bendel Insurance vs Kun Khalifat FC?
Bendel Insurance 1–0 Kun Khalifat FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bendel Insurance vs Kun Khalifat FC?
Bendel Insurance 0.73, Kun Khalifat FC 0.27 – over 2.5 at 8%, BTTS at 29%.
What time is Bendel Insurance vs Kun Khalifat FC?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium – NPFL.