- λ home
- 1.64
- λ away
- 0.50
- Σλ total
- 2.13
- P(over 2.5)
- 37%
- P(BTTS)
- 39%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.4%
Inter Lagos vs Sporting Lagos prediction & xG model: Inter Lagos to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Inter Lagos v Sporting Lagos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipInter Lagos to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Inter Lagos v Sporting Lagos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.24 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.13 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.64, λaway = 0.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inter Lagos | – | 74.0% | 53.4% | 65.3% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 27.9% | 23.9% |
| 2 Sporting Lagos | – | 5.0% | 18.8% | 10.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inter Lagos pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +9.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -23.6% | |
| 2 · Sporting Lagos | 10.8% | 9.27 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -48.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.2% | 1.12 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -0.1% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | 2.89 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -30.7% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inter Lagos | 85.8% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sporting Lagos | 14.2% | 7.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.1% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -10.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.8% | 5.96 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 60.7% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 10.3% | 9.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.136 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 2 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inter Lagos | Sporting Lagos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LL | L |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-2 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Inter Lagos 65% to win.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inter Lagos 1.64 · Sporting Lagos 0.50 · total 2.13. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Inter Lagos to win, probability 65%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Inter Lagos 1–0 Sporting Lagos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inter Lagos vs Sporting Lagos?
The Model pick is Inter Lagos to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inter Lagos v Sporting Lagos probabilities?
Inter Lagos win 65%, draw 24%, Sporting Lagos win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Inter Lagos vs Sporting Lagos?
Inter Lagos 1–0 Sporting Lagos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inter Lagos vs Sporting Lagos?
Inter Lagos 1.64, Sporting Lagos 0.50 – over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 39%.
What time is Inter Lagos vs Sporting Lagos?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 WAT – NPFL.