- λ home
- 1.63
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.93
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.3%
Unipomezia vs Certosa V. Campagnano prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Unipomezia 43% · draw 25% · Certosa V. Campagnano 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Unipomezia v Certosa V. Campagnano: what are you seeing?
- 71′
- 0–0
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How the numbers for Unipomezia v Certosa V. Campagnano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unipomezia (home) | 1.55 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 1.77 |
| Certosa V. Campagnano (away) | 1.27 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.22 × 0.94 ≈ 1.77
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.95 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.93 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.63, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Unipomezia | 47.7% | 43.0% | 38.8% | 42.9% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 18.0% | 29.0% | 24.8% |
| 2 Certosa V. Campagnano | 28.1% | 39.0% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Unipomezia | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -0.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.8% | 4.03 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -23.0% | |
| 2 · Certosa V. Campagnano | 32.3% | 3.09 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -9.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.0% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -14.3% | |
| 12 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Unipomezia | 57.0% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Certosa V. Campagnano | 43.0% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.0% | 4.76 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -14.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.6% | 2.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.4% | 3.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.592 × 1.66 − 1 = -0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Unipomezia | Certosa V. Campagnano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLDL | LLDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Unipomezia ahead at 43%, against 32% for Certosa V. Campagnano and 25% for the draw. Standings: Unipomezia 6th on 16, Certosa V. Campagnano 5th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Unipomezia: L W D L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Latte Dolce. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Certosa V. Campagnano, last six: L L D D W D – one win in total. Latest: 1–3 at home to Trastevere. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Unipomezia 1.63 · Certosa V. Campagnano 1.30 · total 2.93. Goals expected – 53% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.66 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Unipomezia 2–1 Certosa V. Campagnano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone G table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 11 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Unipomezia vs Certosa V. Campagnano?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.66 by the bookmakers.
What are the Unipomezia v Certosa V. Campagnano probabilities?
Unipomezia win 43%, draw 25%, Certosa V. Campagnano win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Unipomezia vs Certosa V. Campagnano?
Unipomezia 2–1 Certosa V. Campagnano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Unipomezia vs Certosa V. Campagnano?
Unipomezia 1.63, Certosa V. Campagnano 1.30 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Unipomezia vs Certosa V. Campagnano?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone G.