- λ home
- 1.53
- λ away
- 0.78
- Σλ total
- 2.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.1%
Sarnese vs Anzio prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sarnese 58% · draw 26% · Anzio 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sarnese v Anzio: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sarnese v Anzio are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarnese (home) | 1.55 | 1.25 | 0.66 | 1.27 |
| Anzio (away) | 1.27 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.25 × 0.66 ≈ 1.27
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.01 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.24 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.82 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.53, λaway = 0.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sarnese | 47.9% | 65.0% | 62.0% | 57.8% |
| X Draw | 30.9% | 25.0% | 22.8% | 26.1% |
| 2 Anzio | 21.2% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sarnese | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -16.2% | |
| X · Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.95 | 25.3% | +3.1% | |
| 2 · Anzio | 16.1% | 6.21 | 5.90 | 16.9% | -4.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.37 | 42.2% | +0.1% | |
| 12 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -11.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sarnese | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Anzio | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.8% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -20.0% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +3.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.3% | 4.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -6.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.6% | 6.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.530 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.034 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sarnese | Anzio |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | WLDDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sarnese ahead at 58%, against 16% for Anzio and 26% for the draw. Standings: Sarnese 1st on 26, Anzio 7th on 16.
Form
Sarnese have five wins from their last six (W W L W W W). Latest: 5–2 away at Monastir. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Anzio: W L D D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Gelbison. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sarnese 1.53 · Anzio 0.78 · total 2.31. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Sarnese 1–0 Anzio. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone G table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 11 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sarnese vs Anzio?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sarnese v Anzio probabilities?
Sarnese win 58%, draw 26%, Anzio win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Sarnese vs Anzio?
Sarnese 1–0 Anzio is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sarnese vs Anzio?
Sarnese 1.53, Anzio 0.78 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Sarnese vs Anzio?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone G.