- λ home
- 1.98
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 2.97
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 10.1%
Afragolese vs Monastir prediction & xG model: Afragolese to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Afragolese 61% · draw 20% · Monastir 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Afragolese v Monastir: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Afragolese v Monastir are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.27 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.72 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.97 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.98, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Afragolese | – | 71.0% | 46.9% | 60.9% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 26.9% | 20.0% |
| 2 Monastir | – | 14.0% | 26.2% | 19.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Afragolese pick | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +15.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.0% | 5.01 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -33.7% | |
| 2 · Monastir | 19.1% | 5.23 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -34.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -2.2% | |
| X2 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -34.3% | |
| 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Afragolese | 76.1% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Monastir | 23.9% | 4.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -5.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.27 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -20.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -3.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -13.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -15.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.4% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.7% | 5.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.609 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.157 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.174 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Afragolese | Monastir |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWDL | LLDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% |
| BTTS | 17% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Afragolese at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Afragolese 8th on 15, Monastir 5th on 17.
Form
Afragolese have two wins from their last six (D W D W D L). Latest: 0–0 away at Albalonga. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Monastir, last six: L L D L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–5 at home to Sarnese. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Afragolese 1.98 · Monastir 1.00 · total 2.97. High total: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Afragolese to win, probability 61%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Afragolese 1–0 Monastir. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone G table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Anzio | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 3 |  Trastevere | 11 | -2 | 18 |
| 4 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Afragolese vs Monastir?
The Model pick is Afragolese to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.90 by the bookmakers.
What are the Afragolese v Monastir probabilities?
Afragolese win 61%, draw 20%, Monastir win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Afragolese vs Monastir?
Afragolese 1–0 Monastir is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Afragolese vs Monastir?
Afragolese 1.98, Monastir 1.00 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Afragolese vs Monastir?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone G.