- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 1.48
- Σλ total
- 3.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Budoni vs Latte Dolce prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Budoni 41% · draw 25% · Latte Dolce 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Budoni v Latte Dolce: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Budoni v Latte Dolce are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budoni (home) | 1.55 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.86 |
| Latte Dolce (away) | 1.27 | 0.90 | 1.32 | 1.51 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.12 × 1.07 ≈ 1.86
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.37 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.36 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 1.48
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Budoni | 45.5% | 40.0% | 36.7% | 40.5% |
| X Draw | 23.3% | 18.0% | 30.0% | 24.9% |
| 2 Latte Dolce | 31.2% | 42.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Budoni | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -25.4% | |
| 2 · Latte Dolce | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -6.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -9.7% | |
| X2 | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -14.4% | |
| 12 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Budoni | 54.0% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Latte Dolce | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.2% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -1.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -18.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.59 | 62.9% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -24.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.8% | 3.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Budoni | Latte Dolce |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDLLL | WLWDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Budoni 41%, draw 25%, Latte Dolce 35%. Standings: Budoni 13th on 14, Latte Dolce 17th on 10.
Form
Budoni have two wins from their last six (W W D L L L). Latest: 2–1 away at Città di Anagni. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Latte Dolce: W L W D D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Unipomezia. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Budoni 0–0 Latte Dolce. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Budoni 1.71 · Latte Dolce 1.48 · total 3.19. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Budoni 2–1 Latte Dolce. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Budoni0–0Latte Dolce
Serie D Girone G table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 11 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Budoni vs Latte Dolce?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Budoni v Latte Dolce probabilities?
Budoni win 41%, draw 25%, Latte Dolce win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Budoni vs Latte Dolce?
Budoni 2–1 Latte Dolce is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Budoni vs Latte Dolce?
Budoni 1.71, Latte Dolce 1.48 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Budoni vs Latte Dolce?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone G.