- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 1.03
- Σλ total
- 2.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Paganese vs Atletico Lodigiani prediction & xG model: Paganese to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Paganese 59% · draw 21% · Atletico Lodigiani 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Paganese v Atletico Lodigiani: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Paganese v Atletico Lodigiani are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.23 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 1.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Paganese | – | 61.0% | 55.8% | 58.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.8% | 20.7% |
| 2 Atletico Lodigiani | – | 22.0% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Paganese pick | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.83 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -27.6% | |
| 2 · Atletico Lodigiani | 20.5% | 4.88 | 4.90 | 20.4% | +0.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -8.6% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -15.5% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Paganese | 74.1% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atletico Lodigiani | 25.9% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.81 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -3.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -14.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -10.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.6% | 5.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.588 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Paganese | Atletico Lodigiani |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLWD | WDDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Paganese 59%, draw 21%, Atletico Lodigiani 21%. Standings: Paganese 10th on 14, Atletico Lodigiani 18th on 6.
Form
Paganese have one win from their last six (L D L L W D). Latest: 0–2 away at Sarrabus Ogliastra. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Atletico Lodigiani, last six: W D D L L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Ossese. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Paganese 1.92 · Atletico Lodigiani 1.03 · total 2.94. High total: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Model selection: Paganese to win, probability 59%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Paganese 1–0 Atletico Lodigiani. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone G table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Anzio | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 3 |  Trastevere | 11 | -2 | 18 |
| 4 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Paganese vs Atletico Lodigiani?
The Model pick is Paganese to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Paganese v Atletico Lodigiani probabilities?
Paganese win 59%, draw 21%, Atletico Lodigiani win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Paganese vs Atletico Lodigiani?
Paganese 1–0 Atletico Lodigiani is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Paganese vs Atletico Lodigiani?
Paganese 1.92, Atletico Lodigiani 1.03 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Paganese vs Atletico Lodigiani?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Marcello Torre – Serie D Girone G.