- λ home
- 1.33
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.60
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Mezzolara vs Scandicci prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Mezzolara 37% · draw 26% · Scandicci 37%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Mezzolara v Scandicci: what are you seeing?
- 24′
- 0–0
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How the numbers for Mezzolara v Scandicci are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mezzolara (home) | 1.52 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| Scandicci (away) | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.06 | 1.29 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.79 × 1.17 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.59 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.49 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.60 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.33, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mezzolara | 38.8% | 36.0% | 36.4% | 37.1% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 18.0% | 29.8% | 26.1% |
| 2 Scandicci | 34.1% | 46.0% | 33.9% | 36.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mezzolara | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -9.0% | |
| X · Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -21.9% | |
| 2 · Scandicci | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.63 | 38.0% | -3.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -14.6% | |
| X2 | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -11.3% | |
| 12 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mezzolara | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Scandicci | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | 1.40 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -15.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -5.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.2% | 3.81 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -8.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -10.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -19.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.2% | 3.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.568 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.007 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mezzolara | Scandicci |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDDDD | LLWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-5-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Mezzolara 37%, draw 26%, Scandicci 37%. Standings: Mezzolara 14th on 11, Scandicci 11th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Mezzolara: D L D D D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Gavorrano. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Scandicci: L L W L D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Flaminia. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mezzolara 1.33 · Scandicci 1.27 · total 2.60. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Mezzolara 2–1 Scandicci. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone E table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mezzolara vs Scandicci?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mezzolara v Scandicci probabilities?
Mezzolara win 37%, draw 26%, Scandicci win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Mezzolara vs Scandicci?
Mezzolara 2–1 Scandicci is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mezzolara vs Scandicci?
Mezzolara 1.33, Scandicci 1.27 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Mezzolara vs Scandicci?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone E.