- λ home
- 0.74
- λ away
- 2.03
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 0–2 12.9%
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Ternana prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 12% · draw 18% · Ternana 70%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Ternana: what are you seeing?
- 40′
- 0–0
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How the numbers for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Ternana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano (home) | 1.52 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Ternana (away) | 1.04 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.74 × 0.67 ≈ 0.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.72 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.73 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.74, λaway = 2.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 67.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 13.4% | 15.0% | 9.6% | 12.2% |
| X Draw | 21.8% | 11.0% | 19.2% | 18.2% |
| 2 Ternana | 64.8% | 74.0% | 71.3% | 69.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 12.2% | 8.22 | 9.30 | 10.8% | +13.1% | |
| X · Draw | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4.65 | 21.5% | -15.4% | |
| 2 · Ternana | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -13.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -5.3% | |
| X2 | 87.8% | 1.14 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -9.5% | |
| 12 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -10.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 14.9% | 6.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ternana | 85.1% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -10.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.4% | 2.15 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -15.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -11.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.0% | 7.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.677 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.066 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLDL | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Ternana 70%, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 12%. Standings: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 18th on 3, Ternana 3rd on 21.
Form
Sequence for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano: L L D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Progresso. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Ternana, last six: W W W W W W – six wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Rondinella. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0.74 · Ternana 2.03 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–2 Ternana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone E table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Ternana?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.38 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Ternana probabilities?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win 12%, draw 18%, Ternana win 70%.
What is the most probable score for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Ternana?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–2 Ternana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Ternana?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0.74, Ternana 2.03 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Ternana?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone E.