- λ home
- 1.52
- λ away
- 1.34
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Gavorrano vs Lucchese prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Gavorrano 43% · draw 22% · Lucchese 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Gavorrano v Lucchese: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Gavorrano v Lucchese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.75 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.52, λaway = 1.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gavorrano | – | 48.0% | 35.8% | 42.9% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.2% | 22.3% |
| 2 Lucchese | – | 34.0% | 36.1% | 34.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gavorrano | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.52 | 39.7% | +8.0% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Lucchese | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -18.9% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +0.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gavorrano | 55.1% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lucchese | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.53 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -7.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.13 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -11.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 38.5% | 2.60 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -24.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.2% | 3.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.615 × 1.69 − 1 = +0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.057 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gavorrano | Lucchese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDDDD | WDLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-5-0 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Gavorrano 43%, draw 22%, Lucchese 35%. Standings: Gavorrano 4th on 21, Lucchese 6th on 18.
Form
Gavorrano have one win from their last six (D W D D D D). Latest: 1–1 away at Mezzolara. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Lucchese, last six: W D L D L D – one win in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to San Donato Tavarnelle. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gavorrano 1.52 · Lucchese 1.34 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Gavorrano 2–1 Lucchese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone E table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gavorrano v Lucchese probabilities?
Gavorrano win 43%, draw 22%, Lucchese win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
Gavorrano 2–1 Lucchese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
Gavorrano 1.52, Lucchese 1.34 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone E.