- λ home
- 1.19
- λ away
- 1.47
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Grassina vs Seravezza prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Grassina 35% · draw 17% · Seravezza 48%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Grassina v Seravezza: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Grassina v Seravezza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.68 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.19, λaway = 1.47
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Grassina | – | 42.0% | 25.3% | 35.0% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.0% | 17.3% |
| 2 Seravezza | – | 47.0% | 48.7% | 47.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Grassina | 35.0% | 2.86 | 3.52 | 28.4% | +23.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.3% | 5.77 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -40.8% | |
| 2 · Seravezza | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -12.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -9.0% | |
| X2 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -22.6% | |
| 12 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 82.6% | +0.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Grassina | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Seravezza | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -9.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 3.49 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -11.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -6.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.6% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.740 × 1.23 − 1 = -0.090 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Grassina | Seravezza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWDL | LLDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 35%. Standings: Grassina 16th on 7, Seravezza 10th on 15.
Form
Grassina, last six: L D L W D L – one win in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Robur Siena. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Seravezza have one win from their last six (L L D D W D). Latest: 1–3 at home to Prato. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Grassina 1.19 · Seravezza 1.47 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.23 v fair 1.35. Most probable score: Grassina 1–2 Seravezza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone E table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Grassina vs Seravezza?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.23 by the bookmakers.
What are the Grassina v Seravezza probabilities?
Grassina win 35%, draw 17%, Seravezza win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Grassina vs Seravezza?
Grassina 1–2 Seravezza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Grassina vs Seravezza?
Grassina 1.19, Seravezza 1.47 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Grassina vs Seravezza?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone E.