- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.87
- Σλ total
- 2.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.1%
Terranuova Traiana vs Progresso prediction & xG model: Terranuova Traiana to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Terranuova Traiana 64% · draw 16% · Progresso 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Terranuova Traiana v Progresso: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Terranuova Traiana v Progresso are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.73 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.75 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.87
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Terranuova Traiana | – | 67.0% | 59.5% | 63.8% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 23.5% | 16.2% |
| 2 Progresso | – | 22.0% | 17.1% | 19.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Terranuova Traiana pick | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -3.0% | |
| X · Draw | 16.2% | 6.16 | 3.85 | 26.0% | -37.5% | |
| 2 · Progresso | 19.9% | 5.02 | 5.30 | 18.9% | +5.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.7% | |
| X2 | 36.2% | 2.77 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -18.6% | |
| 12 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.21 | 82.6% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Terranuova Traiana | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Progresso | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -9.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.1% | 6.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.638 × 1.52 − 1 = -0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Terranuova Traiana | Progresso |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWDL | WLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Terranuova Traiana 64% to win. Standings: Terranuova Traiana 7th on 17, Progresso 17th on 6.
Form
Terranuova Traiana, last six: D W D W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Tau Altopascio. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Progresso, last six: W L L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Terranuova Traiana 1.87 · Progresso 0.87 · total 2.74. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Terranuova Traiana to win, probability 64%, odds 1.52 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Terranuova Traiana 1–0 Progresso. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone E table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Terranuova Traiana vs Progresso?
The Model pick is Terranuova Traiana to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.52 by the bookmakers.
What are the Terranuova Traiana v Progresso probabilities?
Terranuova Traiana win 64%, draw 16%, Progresso win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Terranuova Traiana vs Progresso?
Terranuova Traiana 1–0 Progresso is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Terranuova Traiana vs Progresso?
Terranuova Traiana 1.87, Progresso 0.87 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Terranuova Traiana vs Progresso?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone E.