- λ home
- 1.21
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 2.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.3%
Scanzorosciate vs Pavonese prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Scanzorosciate v Pavonese: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Scanzorosciate v Pavonese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.15 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.33 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.21, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Scanzorosciate | – | 45.0% | 38.7% | 42.4% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.5% | 23.8% |
| 2 Pavonese | – | 36.0% | 30.7% | 33.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Scanzorosciate | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -2.5% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.19 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -30.4% | |
| 2 · Pavonese | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -14.6% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -15.9% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Scanzorosciate | 55.6% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pavonese | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -8.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.4% | 4.89 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -15.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -7.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -3.0% | |
| BTTS no | 48.4% | 2.06 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -14.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.2% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.0% | 4.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.661 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.101 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Scanzorosciate | Pavonese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWLD | WDDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Scanzorosciate 42%, draw 24%, Pavonese 34%. Standings: Scanzorosciate 9th on 14, Pavonese 8th on 16.
Form
Scanzorosciate have two wins from their last six (W D D W L D). Latest: 3–1 away at Club Milano. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Pavonese, last six: W D D W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Pro Palazzolo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Scanzorosciate 1.21 · Pavonese 1.04 · total 2.25. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Scanzorosciate 2–1 Pavonese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Scanzorosciate vs Pavonese?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Scanzorosciate v Pavonese probabilities?
Scanzorosciate win 42%, draw 24%, Pavonese win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Scanzorosciate vs Pavonese?
Scanzorosciate 2–1 Pavonese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Scanzorosciate vs Pavonese?
Scanzorosciate 1.21, Pavonese 1.04 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Scanzorosciate vs Pavonese?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.