- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Caldiero Terme v Villa Valle: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Caldiero Terme v Villa Valle are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.70 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.56 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Caldiero Terme | – | 43.0% | 39.2% | 41.4% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.1% | 22.7% |
| 2 Villa Valle | – | 39.0% | 31.7% | 35.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Caldiero Terme | 41.4% | 2.41 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Villa Valle | 35.9% | 2.78 | 2.85 | 35.1% | +2.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -13.5% | |
| X2 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Caldiero Terme | 53.6% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Villa Valle | 46.4% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.5% | 2.41 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -20.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.2% | 3.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.585 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Caldiero Terme | Villa Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLWW | WWDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Caldiero Terme 41%, draw 23%, Villa Valle 36%. Standings: Caldiero Terme 6th on 18, Villa Valle 7th on 17.
Form
Caldiero Terme, last six: L L W L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Rovato Vertovese. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Villa Valle, last six: W W D W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 5–2 at home to Brusaporto. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Caldiero Terme 1–1 Villa Valle. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Caldiero Terme 1.37 · Villa Valle 1.25 · total 2.62. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Caldiero Terme 2–1 Villa Valle. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Apr 2026Caldiero Terme1–1Villa Valle
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Caldiero Terme v Villa Valle probabilities?
Caldiero Terme win 41%, draw 23%, Villa Valle win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle?
Caldiero Terme 2–1 Villa Valle is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle?
Caldiero Terme 1.37, Villa Valle 1.25 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini – Serie D Girone B.