- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Leon vs Virtus Verona prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Leon v Virtus Verona: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Leon v Virtus Verona are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.56 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Leon | – | 52.0% | 44.6% | 48.9% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.1% | 22.3% |
| 2 Virtus Verona | – | 30.0% | 27.3% | 28.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Leon | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -1.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Virtus Verona | 28.9% | 3.47 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -4.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -9.7% | |
| X2 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -15.7% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +0.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Leon | 62.9% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Virtus Verona | 37.1% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -10.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -3.9% | |
| BTTS no | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -14.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.2% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.1% | 4.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.559 × 1.72 − 1 = -0.039 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Leon | Virtus Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWWW | LLWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Leon ahead at 49%, against 29% for Virtus Verona and 22% for the draw. Standings: Leon 5th on 21, Virtus Verona 12th on 12.
Form
Sequence for Leon: W D L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Tritium. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Virtus Verona: L L W D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Milan II. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Leon 1.47 · Virtus Verona 1.04 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Leon 2–1 Virtus Verona. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Leon vs Virtus Verona?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.72 by the bookmakers.
What are the Leon v Virtus Verona probabilities?
Leon win 49%, draw 22%, Virtus Verona win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Leon vs Virtus Verona?
Leon 2–1 Virtus Verona is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Leon vs Virtus Verona?
Leon 1.47, Virtus Verona 1.04 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Leon vs Virtus Verona?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.