- λ home
- 0.74
- λ away
- 1.96
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.2%
Brusaporto vs Piacenza prediction & xG model: Piacenza to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Brusaporto v Piacenza: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipPiacenza to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Brusaporto v Piacenza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brusaporto (home) | 1.51 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.95 |
| Piacenza (away) | 1.16 | 1.28 | 1.12 | 1.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.79 × 0.80 ≈ 0.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.62 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.71 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.74, λaway = 1.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 66.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Brusaporto | 21.1% | 9.0% | 18.4% | 13.0% |
| X Draw | 25.6% | 19.0% | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| 2 Piacenza | 53.3% | 72.0% | 57.5% | 65.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Brusaporto | 13.0% | 7.72 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -36.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -20.8% | |
| 2 · Piacenza pick | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +3.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -26.7% | |
| X2 | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 87.0% | +0.1% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Brusaporto | 16.4% | 6.09 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Piacenza | 83.6% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -8.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -15.8% | |
| BTTS no | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -2.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.3% | 7.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.659 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.035 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.061 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Brusaporto | Piacenza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLW | LWWDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Piacenza favoured on the road at 66% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Brusaporto 16th on 9, Piacenza 4th on 21.
Form
Brusaporto have one win from their last six (L L L L L W). Latest: 2–5 away at Villa Valle. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Piacenza: L W W D W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Milan II. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Brusaporto 0.74 · Piacenza 1.96 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Piacenza to win, probability 66%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Brusaporto 0–1 Piacenza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Brusaporto vs Piacenza?
The Model pick is Piacenza to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Brusaporto v Piacenza probabilities?
Brusaporto win 13%, draw 21%, Piacenza win 66%.
What is the most probable score for Brusaporto vs Piacenza?
Brusaporto 0–1 Piacenza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Brusaporto vs Piacenza?
Brusaporto 0.74, Piacenza 1.96 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Brusaporto vs Piacenza?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.