- λ home
- 1.76
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Villacañas vs Tarancón prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Villacañas 50% · draw 25% · Tarancón 25%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Villacañas v Tarancón: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Villacañas v Tarancón are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villacañas (home) | 1.53 | 1.33 | 1.02 | 2.08 |
| Tarancón (away) | 1.11 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.04 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.53 × 1.33 × 1.02 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.12 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.76, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villacañas | 60.6% | 46.0% | 43.9% | 50.2% |
| X Draw | 21.5% | 19.0% | 30.5% | 24.7% |
| 2 Tarancón | 17.8% | 35.0% | 25.6% | 25.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villacañas | 50.2% | 1.99 | 2.03 | 49.3% | +1.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · Tarancón | 25.1% | 3.99 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -12.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.9% | 1.33 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -10.1% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -20.3% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villacañas | 66.7% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tarancón | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.49 | 67.1% | +2.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.0% | 3.22 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -26.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.49 | 40.2% | +10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -21.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | 5.10 | 19.6% | +22.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -16.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.5% | 1.84 | 2.13 | 46.9% | +16.1% | |
| BTTS no | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -27.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.9% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.4% | 5.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.545 × 2.13 − 1 = +0.161 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.142 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villacañas | Tarancón |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWDL | DLDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Villacañas 50%, draw 25%, Tarancón 25%. Standings: Villacañas 3rd on 18, Tarancón 8th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Villacañas: D W W W D L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Guadalajara II. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Tarancón have two wins from their last six (D L D D W W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Levante. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villacañas 1.76 · Tarancón 1.01 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.13 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Villacañas 2–1 Tarancón. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 11 | +11 | 27 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Villarrubia | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Noblejas | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Socuéllamos | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 |  Marchamalo | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Quintanar del Rey | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villacañas vs Tarancón?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.13 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villacañas v Tarancón probabilities?
Villacañas win 50%, draw 25%, Tarancón win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Villacañas vs Tarancón?
Villacañas 2–1 Tarancón is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villacañas vs Tarancón?
Villacañas 1.76, Tarancón 1.01 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Villacañas vs Tarancón?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.