- λ home
- 1.82
- λ away
- 0.61
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.1%
Toledo vs Villarrobledo prediction & xG model: Toledo to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Toledo 68% · draw 19% · Villarrobledo 13%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Toledo v Villarrobledo: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Toledo v Villarrobledo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.82, λaway = 0.61
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Toledo | – | 74.0% | 59.4% | 67.9% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 24.6% | 19.0% |
| 2 Villarrobledo | – | 11.0% | 15.9% | 13.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Toledo pick | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +1.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.25 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -31.1% | |
| 2 · Villarrobledo | 13.1% | 7.65 | 5.60 | 17.9% | -26.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.9% | 1.15 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -7.9% | |
| X2 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -29.4% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Toledo | 83.9% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Villarrobledo | 16.1% | 6.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.9% | 3.24 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -8.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -7.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | 2.09 | 47.8% | +9.1% | |
| BTTS no | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -23.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.2% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.679 × 1.50 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.037 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Toledo | Villarrobledo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWW | LDWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Toledo 68% to win. Standings: Toledo 2nd on 22, Villarrobledo 5th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Toledo: W W W L W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Marchamalo. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Villarrobledo have two wins from their last six (L D W D D W). Latest: 0–2 at home to San Clemente. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Villarrobledo 0–0 Toledo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Toledo 1.82 · Villarrobledo 0.61 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Selection: Toledo to win, probability 68%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Toledo 1–0 Villarrobledo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Mar 2026Villarrobledo0–0Toledo
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Noblejas | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Villarrubia | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 |  Marchamalo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 |  Socuéllamos | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  Quintanar del Rey | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
The Model pick is Toledo to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Toledo v Villarrobledo probabilities?
Toledo win 68%, draw 19%, Villarrobledo win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
Toledo 1–0 Villarrobledo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
Toledo 1.82, Villarrobledo 0.61 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.