- λ home
- 1.34
- λ away
- 1.31
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
San Clemente vs Illescas prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: San Clemente 39% · draw 23% · Illescas 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
San Clemente v Illescas: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for San Clemente v Illescas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.37 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.34, λaway = 1.31
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 San Clemente | – | 41.0% | 36.9% | 39.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.8% |
| 2 Illescas | – | 41.0% | 33.8% | 38.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · San Clemente | 39.3% | 2.55 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -5.0% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Illescas | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.64 | 37.9% | +0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -16.3% | |
| X2 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -13.8% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB San Clemente | 50.8% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Illescas | 49.2% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 1.42 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -4.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -19.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -0.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -14.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.98 | 25.1% | +0.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -12.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.86 | 53.8% | +9.7% | |
| BTTS no | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -27.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.3% | 3.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.590 × 1.86 − 1 = +0.097 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.113 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | San Clemente | Illescas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDWW | WLLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 23 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: San Clemente 8th on 15, Illescas 6th on 17.
Form
San Clemente have four wins from their last six (W L W D W W). Latest: 2–0 away at Villarrobledo. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Illescas: W L L L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Almansa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG San Clemente 1.34 · Illescas 1.31 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.86 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: San Clemente 2–1 Illescas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Noblejas | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Villarrubia | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 |  Marchamalo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 |  Socuéllamos | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  Quintanar del Rey | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for San Clemente vs Illescas?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.86 by the bookmakers.
What are the San Clemente v Illescas probabilities?
San Clemente win 39%, draw 23%, Illescas win 38%.
What is the most probable score for San Clemente vs Illescas?
San Clemente 2–1 Illescas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for San Clemente vs Illescas?
San Clemente 1.34, Illescas 1.31 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is San Clemente vs Illescas?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.