- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 0.80
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.0%
Almansa vs Torrijos prediction & xG model: Almansa to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Almansa 59% · draw 23% · Torrijos 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Almansa v Torrijos: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Almansa v Torrijos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.35 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 0.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almansa | – | 66.0% | 50.4% | 59.4% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 27.0% | 22.9% |
| 2 Torrijos | – | 14.0% | 22.6% | 17.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almansa pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -24.3% | |
| 2 · Torrijos | 17.6% | 5.67 | 3.94 | 25.4% | -30.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -5.3% | |
| X2 | 40.6% | 2.47 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -27.0% | |
| 12 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almansa | 77.1% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Torrijos | 22.9% | 4.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -7.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -5.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.2% | 3.81 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -16.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.76 | 56.8% | +0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 42.8% | 2.34 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.052 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.067 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almansa | Torrijos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDWL | LLLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Almansa 59%, draw 23%, Torrijos 18%. Standings: Almansa 12th on 12, Torrijos 10th on 14.
Form
Almansa, last six: L D L D W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Illescas. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Torrijos have one win from their last six (L L L L W D). Latest: 1–4 at home to Manchego. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almansa 1.70 · Torrijos 0.80 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Almansa to win, probability 59%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Almansa 1–0 Torrijos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Noblejas | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Villarrubia | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 |  Marchamalo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 |  Socuéllamos | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  Quintanar del Rey | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almansa vs Torrijos?
The Model pick is Almansa to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almansa v Torrijos probabilities?
Almansa win 59%, draw 23%, Torrijos win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Almansa vs Torrijos?
Almansa 1–0 Torrijos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almansa vs Torrijos?
Almansa 1.70, Torrijos 0.80 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Almansa vs Torrijos?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.