- λ home
- 1.79
- λ away
- 1.12
- Σλ total
- 2.91
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.9%
Huracán Balazote vs Guadalajara II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Huracán Balazote 49% · draw 24% · Guadalajara II 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Huracán Balazote v Guadalajara II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Huracán Balazote v Guadalajara II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huracán Balazote (home) | 1.53 | 0.84 | 1.50 | 1.93 |
| Guadalajara II (away) | 1.11 | 0.75 | 1.31 | 1.09 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.53 × 0.84 × 1.50 ≈ 1.93
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.03 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.46 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.91 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.79, λaway = 1.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 52.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Huracán Balazote | 56.2% | 48.0% | 44.4% | 49.3% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 24.3% |
| 2 Guadalajara II | 20.8% | 34.0% | 26.9% | 26.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Huracán Balazote | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -24.8% | |
| 2 · Guadalajara II | 26.4% | 3.79 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -12.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -10.2% | |
| X2 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Huracán Balazote | 65.1% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Guadalajara II | 34.9% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -2.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.4% | 3.79 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -24.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | 2.06 | 48.5% | +3.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -17.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.68 | 27.2% | +6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -14.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.1% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.550 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.007 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Huracán Balazote | Guadalajara II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDLL | DLLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Huracán Balazote 49%, draw 24%, Guadalajara II 26%. Standings: Huracán Balazote 17th on 7, Guadalajara II 18th on 3.
Form
Huracán Balazote have two wins from their last six (L W W D L L). Latest: 1–5 away at CD Villa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Guadalajara II have zero wins from their last six (D L L L L D). Latest: 2–2 at home to Villacañas. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Huracán Balazote 1.79 · Guadalajara II 1.12 · total 2.91. High total: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Huracán Balazote 2–1 Guadalajara II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 11 | +11 | 27 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Villarrubia | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Noblejas | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Socuéllamos | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 |  Marchamalo | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Quintanar del Rey | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Huracán Balazote vs Guadalajara II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Huracán Balazote v Guadalajara II probabilities?
Huracán Balazote win 49%, draw 24%, Guadalajara II win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Huracán Balazote vs Guadalajara II?
Huracán Balazote 2–1 Guadalajara II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Huracán Balazote vs Guadalajara II?
Huracán Balazote 1.79, Guadalajara II 1.12 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Huracán Balazote vs Guadalajara II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.