- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 1.33
- Σλ total
- 2.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (31 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi City (home) | 1.40 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| Fujieda MYFC (away) | 1.22 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.21 × 0.88 ≈ 1.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.93 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 1.33
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tochigi City | 38.0% | 38.0% | 42.4% | 39.8% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 21.2% |
| 2 Fujieda MYFC | 36.3% | 45.0% | 30.7% | 39.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tochigi City | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -30.1% | |
| 2 · Fujieda MYFC | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.90 | 34.5% | +13.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -18.8% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.5% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tochigi City | 50.5% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fujieda MYFC | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.5% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.605 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tochigi City | Fujieda MYFC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLLL | DLDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Tochigi City 40%, draw 21%, Fujieda MYFC 39%. Standings: Tochigi City 17th on 15, Fujieda MYFC 14th on 19.
Form
Tochigi City, last six: D L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Yokohama FC. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Fujieda MYFC have zero wins from their last six (D L D L D L). Latest: 0–0 at home to Montedio Yamagata. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tochigi City 1.35 · Fujieda MYFC 1.33 · total 2.68. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Tochigi City 2–1 Fujieda MYFC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC probabilities?
Tochigi City win 40%, draw 21%, Fujieda MYFC win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC?
Tochigi City 2–1 Fujieda MYFC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC?
Tochigi City 1.35, Fujieda MYFC 1.33 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at City Football Station – J2 League.