- λ home
- 1.58
- λ away
- 0.74
- Σλ total
- 2.32
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.5%
Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe prediction & xG model: Tokushima Vortis to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTokushima Vortis to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (32 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokushima Vortis (home) | 1.40 | 0.83 | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Vanraure Hachinohe (away) | 1.22 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.83 × 1.05 ≈ 1.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.90 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.32 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.32 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.58, λaway = 0.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tokushima Vortis | 48.3% | 67.0% | 45.6% | 58.0% |
| X Draw | 31.8% | 19.0% | 30.7% | 23.9% |
| 2 Vanraure Hachinohe | 19.9% | 14.0% | 23.7% | 18.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tokushima Vortis pick | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +13.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.7% | |
| 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe | 18.1% | 5.53 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -32.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -0.1% | |
| X2 | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -26.5% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tokushima Vortis | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vanraure Hachinohe | 23.8% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.6% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.5% | 4.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.580 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.131 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.138 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLW | DLLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tokushima Vortis ahead at 58%, against 18% for Vanraure Hachinohe and 24% for the draw. Standings: Tokushima Vortis 16th on 17, Vanraure Hachinohe 18th on 14.
Form
Tokushima Vortis have two wins from their last six (D L L W L W). Latest: 0–0 away at Vegalta Sendai. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Vanraure Hachinohe, last six: D L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–3 away at Imabari. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tokushima Vortis 1.58 · Vanraure Hachinohe 0.74 · total 2.32. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Tokushima Vortis to win, probability 58%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Tokushima Vortis 1–0 Vanraure Hachinohe. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
The Model pick is Tokushima Vortis to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe probabilities?
Tokushima Vortis win 58%, draw 24%, Vanraure Hachinohe win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Tokushima Vortis 1–0 Vanraure Hachinohe is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Tokushima Vortis 1.58, Vanraure Hachinohe 0.74 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Pocarisweat Stadium – J2 League.